Last week while in Israel, I had the opportunity to go to the Golan Heights and view from an old Israeli military site Syria and Lebanon. From that vantage point it became too clear why this is a spot of contention and why Syria wants it back: one can see for miles into the other nations territory.
Two days later while in the southern part of Israel on top of the fortress Masada, I heard the roar of Israeli fighter somewhere over the Dead Sea. As everyone was scanning the sky, I happened to glance down and see a formation of planes skimming off the water. As I pointed them out, they immediately went vertical and disappeared in the sun. Having been raised in an Air Force home, it was a thrill to watch skilled aviators operating their craft in that manner.
I said all of this because both instances were a reminder to me that this tiny country knows that it is one step from annihilation. The number of enemies that threaten them almost on a weekly basis is long.
This past week, Iran’s president bragged that the West used their “bullying powers” in an effort to stop their nuclear program, “but they could not break the will of the Iranian nation.” Iran claims it is only interested in nuclear power for civilian uses –this from the same guy that promises to wipe Israel off the face of the earth.
The Israeli Mossad estimated in 2004 that Iran was only few years from having passed the nuclear ‘point of no return’. The rest of the world took note and scoffed at the notion. However, this past week, the head of the IAEA stated that Iran would have nuclear capability in probably six months. He also stated that any attack on Iran would turn the Middle East into a "fireball”.
Iran and Syria have just taken delivery of new training simulators for the new Russian-made SA-22 surface-to-air missile system. It is one of the most advanced air defense systems in the world. Jane’s Defense Weekly reports that once the SA-22 systems are operational, the odds of Israel penetrating either Syrian or Iranian airspace without being shot down are almost non-existent. It is estimated that six more months are needed before they are fully manned and operational.
In an interview with the London Telegraph, former US Ambassador John Bolton predicted that Israel will hold off on attacking Iran until after the U.S. general elections but before the new president, whoever that might be, is sworn into office. He noted that the "optimal window" for strikes would be between the November 4 election and the inauguration on January 20, 2009.
In light of the Russian-Iranian-Syrian timetable, Bolton’s estimate sounds right on the money. Israel has six months to either act or face the prospect of nuclear annihilation on two separate fronts.
Six months from now would be January…and so the countdown begins!

